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Slide 19 near the ceiling

Coverage approaches observed retraining agreement

92%
of the observed retraining agreement (ρ = 0.57 / 0.62), using training-free source ranking
9.0
MAE in PCK for an unseen source on a known target (LOSO, r = 0.89)
Held-out splitGeneralizes torMAE (PCK)
LOSO — hold sourceunseen source, known target0.899.0
LOTO — hold targetunseen target0.7316.6
LOSTO — hold bothfully novel pair0.6819.4
More: the ceiling plot and the absolute-prediction scatter2 figures
Chance of picking the better source vs observed retraining agreement
Chance of picking the better source vs. the observed retraining agreement (gray).
Few-shot absolute prediction
Few-shot absolute prediction: level from observed runs + coverage offset.